This is a busy period for modern world numismatics, in part because of last week’s World Money Fair held in Berlin, the world’s biggest coin show, which is held in the German city every February.

My colleague Jeff Starck was there and is presenting Coin World’s coverage of the show, but I wanted to mention two points.

First, the micromosaic coin I discussed last week was a big hit, according to Antonello Galletta of Powercoin, who said collectors lined up just to see the coin or take a photo of it.

Second, one of the highlights of the show was the announcement on Feb. 3 of the Coin of the Year Awards, which is a longstanding project organized by Krause Publications

I found it interesting that two from my favorite world coin series were among the ten coins of the year (all dated 2016), including the Royal Australian Mint’s 2016 Cassiopeia domed coin, which was named best silver coin, and the Austrian Mint’s 2016 Time coin, which is made of niobium and silver, and was named best bimetallic coin.

These awards are a great way to bring greater attention to the multitude of interesting and innovative new releases from world mints.

MINTSHIELD

In other news, the Royal Canadian Mint, whose Silver Maple Leaf coins have in the past been known to develop white spots on them, often called “milk spots,” announced “a new proprietary method for reducing the occurrence of white spots on silver bullion coins with a breakthrough innovation called MINTSHIELD surface protection.” The Mint said that all 2018 silver bullion coins utilize the new technology.

This is an encouraging development. The RCM press release noted that laboratory testing designed to simulate long-term use found the method to be successful in resisting spotting compared to coins from other mints that also have this problem.

Of note is also the fact that the Mint said MINTSHIELD reduces and delays the onset of white spots since there is probably no way to prevent them from ever developing in all cases. The proof will come sometime down the road, if RCM coins made from 2018 onward rarely develop spots.

This should also help sales of the two new special Maple Leaf coins designed to honor the 30th anniversary of the world’s second most popular silver bullion coin: the 2018 double incuse silver coin (the first ever that is incused on both sides) and a second coin that features a 30 three-dimensionally superimposed on the maple leaf design, appearing as though a digit dangles from the lobe at either side of the leaf.

Lawsuit on color application

Finally, another development concerning the RCM is the announcement that, on December 22 of last year, it filed against the Royal Australian Mint a lawsuit that claims the latter utilized without permission a technology the RCM patented to apply color to its 2012 Remembrance $2 poppy circulating coins as well as a number of other coins issued between 2013 and 2017.

The Canadian Mint first used this technology in 2004 on a circulating 25-cent coin. It differs from the older method of pad printing, which can wear away with time, by creating micropores and macropores (small and larger pores) so that colors adhere to the surface of the metal more effectively.

The RCM said it asked the RAM to stop infringing on this technology in December of 2015 and has asked that all the RAM colored coins in the RAM's possession be returned or destroyed. The RAM has not yet responded according to press coverage of this issue from last month.

Italian modern world coin company Powercoin, which is owned by Antonello Galletta and based in Rome, has launched two interesting new coins that celebrate great works of art. The first, Birth of Venus – Great Micromosaic Passion, depicts the face of Venus from the very famous painting, The Birth of Venus, by Sandro Botticelli. The painting, which was produced in the 15th century, is an icon of the Renaissance and depicts the goddess Venus shortly after her birth as she arrives on the shore fully grown.

The new coin is the first ever “micromosaic” issue that has more than 5,000 tiny minted tiles on the surface, creating the appearance of a mosaic. It is also a rimless coin, with full details up to the border of the coin.

“The realization of the smallest tiles was a real challenge. Only with modern technologies and by pushing Coin Invest Trust’s Smartminting technology to the limit was it possible,” Mr. Galletta said. He also noted that “We have been working on this coin since 2013 and it was not possible to realize it, until today.”

The coin, issued under the name of Palau, is struck from three ounces of silver and has a mintage of 499 pieces.

The year of issue, 2017, is written in Roman numerals, MMXVII, and is hidden in Venus’ hair in the lower right part.

The obverse of the coin is also very original. It is a mix of Proof and Matte finish with the acronym of the series, GMP, minted among the tiles.

Each coin will be accompanied by a numbered certificate of authenticity matching a serial number on the coin’s edge. The certificate of authenticity will look like a museum ticket and will bear a security hologram.

The coin will be packaged in a custom box built purposely for this coin series, having an irregular shape and colors that recall part of a mosaic.

A sample of the coin is being shown at the World Money Fair in Berlin this week and the coin will be available to ship during the spring.

Eternal Sculptures

A second new coin commissioned by Powercoin and produced in conjunction with CIT is the third issue in the company’s Eternal Sculpture series of coins that depict famous works of sculpture, including the Venus de Milo and Cupid and Psyche coins, which have been profiled in this column.

The new coin, The Rape of Proserpina, depicts a large 17th century marble sculpture of the same name by Italian master Gian Lorenzo Bernini that is about the abduction of Proserpina by Pluto.

Like the first two coins in the series it is struck from two ounces of silver and features high-relief on both sides using CIT’s Smartminting and is a Black Proof, which uses a dark black field combined with a special white paint to highlight the intricate beauty of the marble statue.

The piece has a mintage of 999 coins and is issued under the authority of Palau.

It will also begin shipping in the spring.

The Libertad coin series from Mexico was the gift that kept giving for collectors last year. 2017 is not a year they will soon forget, because of all the new coins released and the impact of those releases on their wallets.

As I discussed in my feature in the December issue of Coin World, last year saw the release of a plethora of silver kilo Libertads, including the first high-relief version, the lowest-mintage ever bullion piece, the regular Prooflike coin, and an antique silver version of the Aztec Calendar kilo.

Considering each of these has over 32 ounces of silver and costs over $1,000 (apart from the bullion version if purchased when first released), there must not be many collectors who can keep up with all those coins.

Pat Stovall of Lois and Don Bailey and Son Numismatics, a major distributor of Libertads, said he too found it hard to keep up with all those kilos.

He added that though he does not normally sell the Aztec kilos, he offered the antique silver one to clients this week for $1,099 with check payment. In addition, he noted that he sold out of the high-relief kilos quickly, which were priced starting at $1,157.

2- and 5-ounce Reverse Proofs

The big news on the Libertad front was the unexpected release in December of the very first 2- and 5-ounce Reverse Proof silver coins. Stovall believes these pieces were produced for domestic Mexican sales and that they have a mintage of 2,000 pieces each, but he is still seeking to confirm those details.

A few examples of the 5-ounce coin turned up on eBay recently and have been selling for between $330 and $405 each.

Stovall’s company was able to procure a limited supply of the 2- and 5-ounce coins and offered them to clients for $119 and $237 respectively. Orders for those coins came fast and furious, which is not surprising considering that these are the first coins of their type and that his prices were much lower than those on eBay.

He also noted that he received more orders for the 2-ounce version, which he thinks is because of the more accessible price level, as well as the fact that there are more collectors of the 2-ounce silver coins.

Stovall also said there is a larger market for 1-ounce graded pieces compared to graded examples of the larger silver pieces.

The spot price of gold has risen substantially since mid-December, reaching as high as $1,363 during the last week of January, the highest level since August 2016.

The run-up in gold has been primarily driven by the decline in the value of the dollar, which hit a three-year low recently.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnunchin said on January 24 that a lower dollar is good for exports, which is true, but that overlooks the fact that it also makes imports more expensive, which ends up driving inflation higher. This is important considering that consumers are the main drivers of our economy.

The following day President Trump talked up the dollar, sending gold slightly lower.

One of the silver linings of the current, more expensive gold market is that it is possible to get some good deals. For example, I’ve noticed several dealers offering random date American Eagle gold bullion coins and Canadian Maple Leaf gold bullion coins at retail prices about $20 over spot, which is about the typical wholesale premium much of the time.

An even better deal are the random date Proof American Eagle coins in their original government packaging, being offered at very close to the same price as bullion examples of the same coins.

For example, at the time of this writing, with gold at $1,352, the wholesale trading value of a Proof American Eagle gold $50 coin, according to www.coininfo.com, is $1,380, while the bullion version is listed at $1,366.20. Wholesale trading prices are the prices dealers pay when buying from customers or other dealers.

In terms of retail prices, APMEX currently offers the Proof American Eagle 1-ounce gold coins, random dates in original government packaging (OGP), for $1,419.49 with check payment, while random bullion coins are $1,414, a $5 difference. Similar deals are available from other major dealers.

In addition, some offer the same coins with only their original capsules and no boxes and papers, which is fine in some cases, but I would recommend getting the coins in OGP, especially if the price is right. It is much easier to sell these coins when they are as issued by the U.S. Mint.

Consider that to purchase the 2017 $50 Proof coin from the Mint, the current price is $1,677.50 with gold between $1,300 and $1,350.

Also keep in mind that almost all coins in the series trade at the same price on the wholesale market irrespective of mintage.

I don’t expect the Proof gold coins to be available on the retail market at these levels for much longer.

Barry McCarthy of ModernCoinMart offered these comments about why the premiums on these coins are down: “Proof gold eagles are following the rest of the physical gold market, just way too many coins out there and not enough demand. With the spot metals prices going up, many investors/collectors are cashing in their metals, gold especially, and dealers are selling it as fast as they get it so they can lock in the small premium they can get right now before the premium goes down even further. It is in a down cycle right now but I am optimistic that this downward spiral of premiums will end. With the incredible volatility of the cryptocurrency market, and the stock market at all-time highs daily, many investors will start to seek a safe haven to put their money. The metals markets will provide that safe haven. Only time will tell but I am bullish about the precious metals market and the coin market in general.”

The 2017 Fiscal Year, which ran from September 2016 through September 2017, was a tough one for the U.S. Mint. 

Sales and revenue from bullion and numismatic coin sales were down sharply, and seigniorage income was also down, according to the FY2017 Annual Report.

Specifically, bullion sales revenue was down 33.9% and net income from those sales was down a whopping 80.3%. These results were driven primarily by a 98.3% drop in net income from sales of American Eagle silver dollars, which were down by 41.5.

It is also worth noting that the America the Beautiful 5-ounce quarter dollars, the American Eagle palladium coin program, and American Eagle platinum bullion programs all ended the year at a loss.

On the numismatic side, revenue was down 6.2%, while net income from those sales was down by 44.3%, which is attributed mainly to the end of the presidential dollar and First Spouse coin and medal programs. 

It is certainly the case that there were bright spots for the year such as the various products issued to mark the 225th anniversary of the Mint, but overall these results are troubling, especially the steady downward decline in numismatic sales since 2013.

A key factor is the end of several longstanding coin programs. The Mint is currently in a transition period in which its future direction in terms of numismatic programs other than regular annual offerings largely remains to be determined.

The American Innovation $1 coin program that passed the House recently is an example of the wrong kind of program, since I do not detect much enthusiasm for it from collectors. 

In my view, another important factor is that buyers have become weary of paying several hundred dollars in premiums for gold and platinum products, especially since, apart from key date pieces, aftermarket values for those coins typically decline to close to melt value.

Mint officials said during last November’s numismatic forum that they were not focused on aftermarket values of their products, but they should be. And a way must be found to bring down prices for higher-end coins, in part by offering them in capsules for those who plan to have the coins graded.

Ryder nomination

Mint Director-nominee David J. Ryder, whose nomination expired at the end of last year without a vote, has been re-nominated and awaits Senate confirmation.

Let’s hope that politics does not get in the way of getting Ryder to the Mint as soon as possible. 

While acting officials are certainly capable of running the Mint, as they have since 2011, at this important juncture in the Mint’s future it is essential to have a congressionally-approved director.

The Mint faces a daunting array of challenges from reversing the slide in bullion and numismatic sales to implementing effective anti-counterfeiting measures, figuring out how to appeal to younger collectors, and many others.

Ryder is very well placed to take on this agenda given his background as a former Mint Director and private sector specialist in anti-counterfeiting technology, not to mention that he is also a coin collector, as he told me last year.

Louis Golino has been a collector of American and world coins since childhood and has written about coins since 2009. In addition to writing about modern coins and other numismatic issues for Coin World, he writes a monthly column for The Numismatist magazine and has written for other coin publications. In 2017, for  “Liberty Centennial Designs,” in Elemetal Direct, he was presented with the Numismatic Literary Guild's award for best article in a non-numismatic publication. He is also a founding member of the Modern Coin Forum. 

There is a tradition started by several numismatic publication editors, including Coin World’s Bill Gibbs and Numismatic News’ David Harper, of posting their predictions for the hobby at the end of one year for the coming year.

In that spirit and with all the usual caveats that go with making predictions, I offer my own for 2018’s U.S. Mint products.

The recent trend of “lower lows” in U.S. Mint precious metal coin series will continue for some and will not for many others. Overall, I expect sales to be stronger than in 2017.

For example, the World War I Centennial dollar and Breast Cancer Awareness commemorative coin programs will both sell much better than the two 2017 commemorative programs, Boys Town and the Lions Club.

It is also worth noting that this means collectors of modern U.S. coins will embrace the first colored gold coin from the Mint, the $5 rose gold coin.

And, while the World War I dollars will not sell out, the Armed Forces medals, limited to 100,000 and paired with the dollar coins in five sets, will sell out despite a marketing approach that has received a lot of criticism.

In addition, the 2018-S American Silver Eagle Proof coin will sell more units than the 2017-S version of this coin, despite the announcement of a slight price increase for these coins, which will cost $55.95 each compared to $53.95 for the 2017 coins.

Precious metal prices will likely be up over the course of the year due to a declining dollar, strong technical factors, rising geopolitical tensions, and increased concerns about the Federal deficit and debt, which will rise substantially over the course of the year and throughout the Trump years.

Sales of and demand for the bullion versions of the American Eagle gold coins of various sizes and the 1-ounce silver dollars will increase, because investors in these areas tend to buy more when prices are rising (despite the fact that it is more economical to buy when prices are declining).

I also predict that the Proof 2018 American Liberty tenth-ounce gold coin will sell out, provided the mintage is not more than about 100,000 units.

Overall interest in slabbed modern U.S. coins will decrease as prices for 70-graded examples decrease and more buyers learn than it is often easier to sell coins in their original packaging.

Sales of the collector versions (with a P Mint mark) of the America the Beautiful 5-ounce silver quarter dollars will continue to decrease as the number of collectors willing to stick with the series diminishes, but sales of the bullion coins, which are about $50 less per coin, will remain stable or even increase.

Finally, the Proof American Eagle Preamble to the Constitution 1-ounce platinum $100 coin and the Proof American Eagle 1-ounce palladium $25 coin will both sell out, provided the mintages are appropriate, which would be under 10,000 for the platinum issue and about 20,000 for the palladium coin.

We will see how I do….

The end of the year is always a good time to take stock of developments in the hobby over the past year.

Perhaps the most important trend for modern coins is the fact that the market has continued to become softer and more saturated, making it a good one for buyers and a tough one for sellers. There are far fewer opportunities than in the past to buy something at issue price and sell it for a profit, especially if you are not a dealer.

This means you have to adapt to a changing numismatic arena. There will always be opportunities for those who do their homework, such as the ultra-low mintage gold Libertads I covered in my December feature in Coin World magazine, or the 2017 Niue Ares two-ounce ultra-high relief silver coin I discussed in an earlier article.

While the U.S. and other mints and coin dealers will always do things that we periodically find annoying, I prefer to direct my energy toward figuring out how to make things work for me, rather than spend a lot of time kvetching. For example, we may quibble with the way the Mint sold certain coins like the 2017 palladium American Eagles, but those who paid close attention had ample opportunity to buy those coins, in the weeks before they were released, from a wide range of coin dealers at a price that turned out to be a real bargain.

The same is true of some coins sold with high household limits like the 2016-W Centennial Winged Liberty Head gold dime, which sold out quickly but whose price has come back down to close to issue price. Rather than spend a lot of time venting about how the household limit locked you out, be patient and see how the market develops.

Experienced collectors suspected early on that a coin with a mintage as high as the gold dime (125,000) would be readily available later. For example, in April 2016, longtime dealer Barry Stuppler advised his clients that retail prices for the dimes were likely to come down after initial demand dissipated.

In a similar vein, I often hear or read comments from collectors who are angry about a certain decision by the Mint or Congress, such as to issue another quarter or dollar coin series. They say they will quit the hobby if this happens. But why not just ignore those coins since they are not of interest to you and focus on what you enjoy?

Third, American coin collectors today appear to have become more receptive to modern depictions of Lady Liberty. Consider the contrast between comments over the past two years in advance of the release of the 2015 to 2017 American Liberty gold coins and silver medals and actual sales. It is true that sales were stronger for the 2015 and 2016 products, but nonetheless, this year’s gold coin, in dollar terms, was the Mint’s biggest seller.

In addition, initial reactions to the three modern Liberty designs to be released on the new Proof American Eagle platinum coin series that debuts in January have been positive.

A final observation is that greater consultation between the Mint, the Congress, dealers, and collectors would go a long way towards addressing many of the pressing issues the hobby faces, from getting mintages and order limits right to issuing the kinds of commemorative coins buyers want, and striking the right balance between reusing classic coin designs and issuing coins with new designs.

The forums the Mint held this year and in 2016 were useful in this regard, but much more needs to be done. Surveys from the Mint are useful, but much more outreach is needed.

A Happy 2018 to my readers!

It covers coins issued since 2000 by Australia, New Zealand, and the numerous countries of the Pacific region such as Niue, Cook Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu, which are well-known for the myriad coins produced by mints in other countries on their behalf through licensing arrangements.

Those arrangements not only produce revenue for these countries (and unfortunately probably also raise the retail price of the coins), but they also make it possible to provide collectors with an amazingly diverse and innovative universe of coins produced with cutting-edge minting techniques, typically issued in small numbers.

The book calls these coins “the most beautiful and the most elitist coins in the world.” Some people less enamored with this area of numismatics derisively refers to it as “circus coins” and say there are too many such coins. They also note that many have declined from their issue price, but that view overlooks some important facts.

One is that many others of these coins have been among the best secondary market performers. I recently saw an eBay sale for a 2-ounce Lunar gold coin from the Perth Mint issued in 2008 that sold for over $14,000, or around seven times its original price. Second, as Mik Woodgate of AgAuNews noted, some of the most impressive coins of recent years, such as the Tiffany Art series, would not exist if these countries had not gone into this field. Third, collector coins are not intended as investments, though will careful study it may be possible to identify those that are more likely to increase in value.

The book covers 9,000 circulation, commemorative/collector, and bullion coins in 357 pages and has 14,000 color illustrations, showing both sides of each coin in most cases. It is a high-quality, hardback book and will undoubtedly be a very useful reference for collectors.

It is organized into three sections: coin series, which may include pieces from different countries; bullion coins of all metals; and countries, which lists the circulation and collector coins issued by the broad range of countries covered.

For each coin or set the following details are provided: face value, country of issue, metal, weight, size, quality, mintage, date of issue including the month, and in most cases either issue price or retail value as of March 2017, except for the bullion coins since their price is tied in part to fluctuating precious metal prices.

My one quibble is that the print and the color images are rather small, but that is undoubtedly because so many coins are covered. Plus, enlarging the images and larger print would have added many pages and made the book heavier.

Since the series and countries sections overlap, perhaps in the next edition there could be just one section of collector coins, one on bullion, and a third on circulation pieces.

The only other book I am aware of that covers some of this material would be the Standard Catalog of World Coins 2001 to Date from Krause, but the Rosanowski volume is much more comprehensive in its scope and in the details provided on each coin, features color, rather than black and white images, and has more updated pricing information.

The book is available from world coin retailers such as www.powercoin.it, www.firstcoincompany.com, and www.thecoinshoppe.ca.

Even with the rise of interest in numismatics in China, Germany, and other countries, the U.S. coin market still overshadows the others in most ways. And the U.S. market is, of course, dominated by the market for U.S. coins – classic and modern – despite rising interest in world coins.

As a result of this situation, numismatic publishing, in particular in the area of guidebooks and reference works, is substantially more developed for U.S. coin series than it is for world coins.

One area in the modern world coin realm that has long been in need of a good reference guide is that of modern world silver coins, an increasingly popular area for both coin collectors and silver investors.

It is that very intersection between silver stacking and building sets of silver coins that provides the backdrop for a new book by German author and journalist Sebastian Wieschowski, who previously served as editor-in-chief of the investment journal, Goldblatt, and is the author of other books on precious metal investment and euro coins.

Called Bullion Book: Silver Coins for Collectors and Investors, the new work is available in both English and German editions and begins with three concise chapters that explain why interest in modern world silver bullion coins has increased in recent years and why it is likely to expand even further.

The author also explains why silver is an attractive form of precious metal investment, such as its diverse industrial, medical and other uses; its much lower cost compared to its “big brother gold”; why it is probably very undervalued in light of the historic silver-gold ratio and the fact that it has not rebounded as much as gold has since the highs of 2011; and its finite quantity that makes its actually scarcer than gold.

Sebastian also explains the many reasons why silver bullion coins are a preferred way to invest in silver, such as the fact that the coins are monetized by sovereign governments; issued in many cases in limited quantities and with changing designs; easily tradeable; and far more useful than gold in a financial emergency as a replacement currency, since smaller amounts of silver could be used to purchase daily necessities.

The bulk of the 180-page book consists of brief chapters on each of the major silver bullion coin series issued today from major world mints in Austria, Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Mexico, and the U.S., as well as most of the better-known series from smaller and private mints issued for countries like the Cook Islands and Niue.

Each of these chapters discusses key background to the series, the factors that shape the rarity of the coins, and the range of products issued, including special editions and collector versions.

And each chapter also includes excellent, high-resolution images of each bullion coin in the series through the 2017 issues, which is very useful to identify the coins and to help in determining if a coin one encounters is genuine.

The book ends with a rarity report that uses a star system going from one to five stars that is used to rate the rarity of each issue in the series covered in the book.

Bullion Book fills an important gap in the literature on modern world coins and should help further stimulate interest in this rapidly growing area of numismatics. As the author explains, these coins have become highly sought collectibles with many past issues of series like the China Panda or Australian Lunar series selling for many multiples of their silver value.

When the author comes out with a second edition, that one should include some important new series like the Silver Swan and Dragon and Phoenix from the Perth Mint and the Czech Lion, as well as others. He may also want to include a discussion of why the 2005 Kangaroo from Perth was released after the 2006 issue.

The book can be purchased on eBay and directly from the author, who can be contacted through his Facebook page. He also offers a news update service on his blog, www.bullionblog.eu.