2016 Should be a Good Year for Coins

The overall state of the coin market, which has been rather lackluster below the level of high-end rare coins in the past couple years, is likely to be impacted by how precious metals perform.

Metal prices help shape the numismatic market in many ways, and a bullish metals market lifts the coin market.  For example, dealers and collectors whose bullion holdings increase in value have more funds available to purchase numismatic pieces. 

I have no idea what the price of gold or silver will be at the end of the year, but I would not be surprised if we see a positive turnaround in 2016.  Fundamentals are strong, and it is unusual for an asset class to be down for several years in a row.

Bear in mind as well that the strength of the dollar has masked the performance of gold in the past couple years since in non-dollar currencies it has done much better, especially in countries that have seen significant inflation and currency depreciation. 

I agree with those who say the dollar may begin to decline at some point in 2016 for several reasons, including, among others, the fact China’s currency, the renminbi, officially becomes a global reserve currency at the end of the year, which means central banks around the world will need to convert some of their dollars into that currency.

In terms of modern U.S. numismatics, 2016 should be a strong year with all the anniversaries to be celebrated with U.S. Mint coins this year.  From the centennial of the debut in 1916 of three collector favorites (Walking Liberty half dollar, Standing Liberty quarter, and Liberty Head dime) and of the National Park Service to the 30^th anniversary of the American Silver and Gold Eagle programs and the 10^th anniversary of the American Buffalo Gold coin, 2016 will be marked by a wide range of coins that will excite collectors and include surprises. 

I expect the Mark Twain commemoratives to be a hit because of the solid designs and the broad appeal of the subject matter, and within the America the Beautiful quarter and 5-ounce silver coin series, the October Theodore Roosevelt National Park coins will be very popular because so many collectors admire Roosevelt.  In fact, many believe he should have appeared on the obverse of the coins rather than Washington.

The Reagan coin and chronicles set will of course be a hit too, though collectors will not be happy with the fact that no set is planned for the Nixon and Ford dollar coins since collectors hate gaps. 

The 2016 American Platinum Eagle proof coin is another I expect to attract a lot of attention.  The mintage will likely be higher than that of the 2015 coin provided that sufficient planchets can be secured, and those who were fortunate to obtain the 2015 coin will be pleased to see their investment hold its value as a key coin.

Finally, the American Liberty high relief silver medal should prove very popular too, and when combined with strong sales of the gold version, may result in a rethink of the Mint’s decision not to make this an ongoing series.