Monday Morning Brief for Jan. 21, 2018
- Published: Jan 21, 2019, 2 AM
As I wrote in my Dec. 24 Monday Morning Brief (which was written and edited in mid-December), the predictions for 2018 that I had made a year earlier met with mixed results. Nonetheless, here are my predictions for 2019 (written in mid-January).
Prediction #1: The Proof 2019-P Apollo 11 5-ounce commemorative silver dollar will sell out in less than 24 hours.
The coin has a maximum mintage of 100,000 pieces and a household limit of five. It will be priced at a just under $225, a price high enough to discourage collectors on a limited budget but not dealers who can use techniques to get around the household order limits. This is the first U.S. 5-ounce commemorative coin, with a theme that is truly historic; that almost ensures a sellout. We will have the reality to compare to this prediction soon, since the coins go on sale Jan. 24, a few days after this issue is mailed to subscribers.
Prediction #2: In the precious metals field, palladium will shine the brightest.
Market watchers are predicting a good year for palladium, which is now one of the big four in the precious metals investment field, the others being gold, silver and platinum. Already in January 2019, the metal has been setting price records above the $1,300 level. Expect market interest in the metal to extend to any American Eagle palladium coins the United States Mint might issue this year; if offered, the palladium coins will sell out quickly.
Prediction #3: The U.S. Mint will announce some sort of “innovation” for a coin or packaging that has not been used previously for a Mint product.
Mint officials at the 2018 Mint Forum in Washington, D.C., announced various possible products for 2019 or later. Mint officials remain noncommittal about one proposal, a circulating rarity. They have also discussed enhancements to packaging and coins, to make the products more resistant to counterfeiting.
Prediction #4: There will be no improvement in the overall health of the hobby.
The aging demographics of coin collectors and changes in the marketplace will continue to plague the hobby. The market for top-notch rare coins, particularly those with Certified Acceptance Corp. stickers, will continue to be strong. The market for common and low-grade coins will continue to be moribund, as it has been for some time.
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