In 1949, Dr. William H. Sheldon introduced the numismatic term "condition census" in his book Early American Cents, later renamed Penny Whimsy.
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U.S. gold coin specialist Douglas Winters lists this NGC MS-64 1848-C Coronet gold $5 half eagle as the finest known for the date and Mint mark in his Condition Census. Such censuses rank the top-graded pieces by date and Mint.
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Images courtesy of HeritageAuctions.com. This 1795 Flowing Hair, 2 Leaves half dollar, Overton 110 variety, graded PCGS About Uncirculated 58, sold on Aug. 13, 2006, for $37,375. It included the following auction catalog description: "The recently published fourth edition of Overton provides a Condition Census of 61, 45, 45, 40, 35. Based on information from other researchers, however, we believe the true Census includes several higher grade pieces. Although this example is almost certainly within the top half dozen known examples, we are unable to claim that it is the second finest known."
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Condition census, according to Sheldon, denoted the finest example and average condition of the next five finest known of a given variety of large cents dated from 1793 through 1814.
Catalogers have gradually extended the use of condition census to other U.S. coin series. According to numismatic writer Q. David Bowers, the term has been used indiscriminately, sometimes to describe any coin that was in a particularly high grade category for its variety, regardless of how many others might share that category.
Growing from the condition census concept are the set registries for certified coins initiated by Professional Coin Grading Service and Numismatic Guaranty Corp. at the end of the 20th century.
The set registry concept was the brainchild of PCGS co-founder David Hall, currently the president of Collectors Universe, PCGS's parent company. It began when Hall published in 1998 a printed booklet providing lists of the finest PCGS-certified coin collections and almost complete collections by denomination.
BJ Searls, the PCGS Set Registry manager, launched the registry online in February 2001. NGC followed suit in August 2001 with the NGC Registry.
In commentary published in The Official American Numismatic Association Grading Standards for United States Coins, Bowers explained that condition census offers an edge over other rarity and grading assessments.
Census advantage?
"The Condition Census has the advantage that the collector can determine at a glance the range and availability of the finest known pieces," according to Bowers. "It has the disadvantage that grading interpretations vary, and what one cataloger or expert might call MS-60 [Mint State 60], another might call AU-55 [About Uncirculated 55] or even MS-63. Because of this, the grades, including those given by the certification services, must not be considered as absolute."
The condition census can change as longtime collections that have been off the market are sold and individual coins and varieties for different series not represented in any published condition census become available to other collectors, Bowers wrote. Years from now, the census could be revised, with the lowest grade bumped up several grade points, Bowers said. The same is true of rarity ratings, he said.
More than just cents
Condition census listings have been devised for series beyond the Early Date large cents for which Sheldon conceived the system.
Often, according to Bowers, the census represents the top six finest-known pieces, graded numerically and arranged in descending order.
"In a hypothetical instance a Condition Census of 63-60-55-55-50-50 would indicate that the top six specimens range in grade from AU-50 to MS-63, and MS-63 is finest," according to Bowers. "However, if in the preceding instance the top four coins were 63-60-55-55, but then there were 100 pieces at the AU-50 level, the Condition Census would read the same, but would not indicate that AU-50 is more populous than AU-55.
PCGS President Ron Guth says the condition census was used in large cents to indicate to collectors what the top-ranked coins were for any particular variety. Later, the concept of a condition census was applied to virtually every other U.S. coin series, particularly die varieties of early U.S. coins, Guth said.
"A Condition Census is very valuable, particularly when one comes across a newly discovered coin, or the reappearance of an old coin, as a means of judging the relative importance of that coin," Guth said. "However, the flaw with the traditional censuses is that they are maintained by different individuals or groups, who may or may not have differing standards."
"No cross-pollination" of grading exists between the censuses for different series, like Sheldon large cent varieties, early U.S. dimes and half dollars by Overton variety (Early Half Dollar Varieties: 1794-1836 by Al C. Overton and Donald Parsley), according to Guth.
"It might be an interesting experiment to have a Whist Match where the experts in different series graded the Census coins from another series with which they may not be familiar," Guth said. "I submit that there could be some significant disparities."
"Whist match" is a game collectors of early copper coins play to compare their collections. According to Sheldon, early large cent collector Dr. George French enjoyed comparing his collection against that of others, and in doing so, invented a game he called "Old Cent Whist." It was a game usually played by two, but more could play.
The idea was to score points against an opponent's collection, starting with the first large cent variety of 1793 through the final variety in 1814.
Possession of the variety earned a collector one point, and another point if yours was superior. Varieties that tied in condition earned each collector one point. If a collector did not have the variety, no points were earned.
The registry set concept, invented by PCGS, reflects the standards and consensus grades of PCGS experts, according to Guth. The registry sets are, in effect, a condition census created by PCGS, he said. Guth said the combination of standardization and consistency explains why PCGS only permits PCGS-graded coins in its Set Registry.
Although an "impractical and virtually impossible solution," the ideal census is one in which all of the coins in the census can be arranged side-by-side for direct comparison, Guth said. "A visual or photographic census, a concept utilized to great effect by Bill Noyes in his books on large cents, is the next best solution, and one which is an important add-on to the PCGS Set Registry, and a valuable research tool, to boot," Guth said.
Another "census" exists, maintained by those third-party grading services that publish "population reports": listings of the numbers of coins certified by either firm in each grade by date, Mint mark and in some cases, by die variety.
"The PCGS Population Report is a more pure form of a Census than is the Set Registry, since not all coins reported in the Pops are listed on the Registry," Guth said.
Sheridan Downey, an Oakland, Calif., dealer who specializes in Bust silver coinage, prefaced his comments by noting his belief that condition census is "a very touchy subject in the Bust half world."
Until 1990 when Parsley published the third edition of the Overton reference on half dollars, no cohesive or comprehensive condition census existed for Bust half dollars, Downey said.
The only thing coming close, Downey said, was during the 1980s when collector Dr. Ivan Leaman kept a personal record of coins offered at auction and in published fixed-price lists.
Leaman recorded the grades assigned by the auction companies and the consignors and also had access to the internal census of the Bust Half Nut Club (whose members collect die marriages, or varieties, of early silver half dollars), Downey said.
BHNC members, in Downey's opinion, seldom seek coins graded above MS-63 because "the per coin 'entry level' is too high and many die pairs do not exist in lofty grades." Because of that, the BHNC census represents a skewed version of the condition census, Downey said.
Leaman shared with Parsley the information gleaned from auction records and fixed-price lists when Parsley was preparing the manuscript for the third edition of the Overton reference, according to Downey.
Listings for major die varieties in the third edition include a notation of the top five grades.
Downey said the population reports from the grading services were of little use because, when the third edition of the Overton book was being edited, the services did not all generally assign Overton varieties to the coins graded, making it impossible to know which die pair was represented.
There still isn't a comprehensive condition census for Bust half dollars, Downey said.
Steve Hermann published a useful compilation of auction results, Auction & Mail Bid Prices for Bust Half Dollars 1794-1836," Downey said. Hermann's findings revealed in many cases where the same coin was offered in different grades by different auction companies, Downey said.
Downey said auction catalogers will "recite" the condition census appearing in the 2005 fourth edition of the Overton book "when offering a coin that appears to fit."
"The forthright cataloger with access to Herrman's compilations will likewise acknowledge the appearance of a high grade coin that Parsley has missed," Downey said. "Parsley's listings are of virtually no import or use with respect to mid and lower rarity Bust halves, say Rarity 1 [Common, more than 1,000 known] through Rarity 3 [Scarce, 201 to 500 known].
"When we get to the high rarity coins, Rarity 5 [Rare, 31 to 80] through Rarity 8 [Unique or nearly so, 1 to 3], we do have a good handle on candidates for the Condition Census. These coins are few in number and have been monitored by collectors for nearly four decades."
While the grading service registry sets provide collectors with an enjoyable challenge, Downey believes "they are not, however, a stepping stone to establishing a reliable Condition Census."
"We cannot integrate competing registries because grading standards differ," Downey said. "If each grading service were to 'cross' another's, i.e., agree on the grade of a coin, then we could integrate their registries."
Added Downey: "A Condition Census may be compiled only by a very, very small group of individuals who are unbiased, consistent graders with an understanding of the striking process and peculiarities of the era, who are able to identify and ferret out chemically treated, repaired and artificially toned early silver coins and, most importantly, who have actually seen the coins that are nominees to the Condition Census," Downey said.
